By
Maj. Gen. S. C. N.
Jatar, Retd
The major energy security concern
that the new UPA government will face is ensuring secure supply of oil and
gas. As ‘Peak Oil’ is looming large over
the world, there is need to develop alternate sources of energy. The government has already signed a nuclear
deal with
The Nuclear Deal
Our planners need to
appreciate that nuclear energy cannot wholly replace oil & gas, especially
for transportation needs. There is no
economically viable fluid substitute on the horizon for crude oil so far.
What is ‘Peak Oil’?
“Peaking will strike the
world. No one knows when.”
Hence, both from short and
long term points of view, the most important issue for the government is to
draw up a plan to combat the effects of ‘Peak Oil’. This should be done by research &
development for alternative sources of energy in the short term and more
importantly, by preparing for the time when ‘Peak Oil’ strikes in the long term.
Former
‘Peak Oil’, the day when oil
production reaches its maximum and begins a decline is fast approaching. Problem Day is the day when
demand permanently exceeds supply, resulting in a sharp and lasting rise in
prices to suppress that demand, which is likely by 2010.[1]
Mitigation Measures
In 2004, when the UPA first
took the reigns, oil prices were about the same as now (US $ 60/bbl). In its second reign, supply position has further
eased because of the recession and the world does not presently face acutely
the shortage of supply. This has given a
feeling of complacency to our planners.
Mitigating the effects of ‘Peak Oil’ requires long-term solutions and
perhaps there is no better time than now to begin these efforts. Global recession has halted investment in
exploration and energy projects, which could result in reaching the record
prices of July 2008 once the world recovers from economic crisis. [2]
Peak oil presents the world
with a risk management problem of tremendous complexity and enormity. Prudent risk minimization requires the implementation
of mitigation measures roughly 20 years before peaking to avoid a very damaging
world liquid fuels shortfall and minimising economic costs. Since it is uncertain when peaking will occur
or whether it will be due to geological or investment limitations, the
challenge is indeed vexing.[3] Mitigation basically involves changing the
life style of the human race because we are truly a ‘hydrocarbon society’. It embraces a wide range of actions such as,
replacing all machinery, including for transportation, that presently run on
petroleum; improving energy efficiency technologies; developing hybrids (e.g.
diesel-hybrids); improving oil recovery; researching in production of
unconventional oil, e.g. hydrates, heavy oil, bitumen, oil sands, and tar sands;
improving gas-to-oil technology; fuel switching to electricity; and using
‘hydrogen’.[4]
Extending useful life of
remaining oil reserves
It is not mere fascination
with “peak oil”; another critical aspect to the world economy is to secure
access to inexpensive and suitable fuel from any source to power its current
fleet of passenger vehicles, load carriers, and aircraft.
Efforts to manufacture
additives for blending into petrol and diesel are in full swing to extend the
useful life of the world's remaining oil reserves.
Energy Returned On Energy
Invested (EROEI)
In order to decide whether
our efforts to use renewable energy sources as additives to oil are viable, it
is useful to understand the concept of EROEI.
The most common additive in
The Indian government is
promoting rapid expansion of a biodiesel crop, jatropha: by 2012 some 14
million hectares are to be planted on what it has classified as “wasteland”
[5]
but reports are already coming in of farmers being dispossessed of fertile land
by companies wanting to grow jatropha. [6] All of this amounts to nothing less that the
re-introduction of the colonial plantation economy, redesigned to function
under the rules of the modern neo-liberal, globalised world.
Environmentalists have warned
against biofuels, saying they could produce twice the carbon emissions of the
fossil fuels they replace, environmentalists have claimed.[7]
Friends of the Earth said rules
introduced a year ago requiring a percentage of
Supporters claimed that in
the 1st year of the Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation, the
industry had shown it was possible to produce sustainable fuels in the
Long-term Studies &
Action Plan to Combat Looming ‘Peak Oil’
‘Peak Oil’:
EROEI:
Substitution outside Transportation
Sector: According to studies in
Substitute for Liquid Hydrocarbons:
Transportation uses liquid hydrocarbons to the extent of a high of about 70 %
in the
1257 Words
[1] Miller, Richard G, “Question regarding
Hubbert”, millerr@bp.com,
[2] Mason,
Rowena, “Oil will hit peak after recession”, Telegraph.co.uk,
[3] Hirsch, Robert L., Senior Energy
Program Advisor, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC),
“Peaking of world oil production – recent forecasts”.
[4] Hirsch, Robert L., Senior Energy
Program Advisor, SAIC, “Peaking of world oil production, Impacts, Mitigation
& Risk Management”
[5] UNCTAD Report, 2006, http://tinyurl.com/2apse3
[6] For a discussion on
the problems with jatropha in
[7] “Biofuels could pollute more”, The
Economic Times,